Tuesday, January 03, 2012

The Strait of Hormuz

The situation seems to escalate a bit in the Strait of Hormuz. Hopefully it will not come to any violence, but who knows. Even if the interesting questions here are what the different sides would like to achieve and how far they really can go, the map of the Strait of Hormuz and it's geographical surroundings doesn't give much room for error. The United Arabe Emirates are just nearby.
Since the overall concern here seems to be Iran developing nuclear weapons (as well as carrier missiles for those) it's tempting to discuss what could happen if you'd bring nukes to this potential theatre of war?

Well, according to Google Maps, the Strait of Hormuz is at it's widest about 85 km and at it's most narrow point about 45-54 km wide. It's not much and the margins are narrow.


Any spill of either nuclear of other environmentally hazardous material would have an impact on the neighbouring countries given the small distances. The water flow of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian gulf seems a bit season depending, party due to the different bottom-surface topology on either side of the strait. On the east side (the "oceanic part axessing the Indian Ocean water body) it's deep, while on the west side it's shallow and sheltered. 
So basically this means that if the direction of surface water flow is seasonally  bound, then if the setting is natural geographic setting is wrong, the flow of surface water can spread hazardous materials towards the gulf in the west, instead of spreading them in the more pelagic east zone. That means that how the dispersal will be depends on season, weather and the resulting surface water flow as well as on which side of the strait a potential conflict takes place.

Given that a nuclear (as an example) blasts destructive force depends on the yield and type of nuclear weapon, the safety distance varies (See US Homeland Security at National Terror Alert page about Effects of a Nuclear Explosion). However it would seems the the UAE and Dubai lie in immediate danger of being affected if a nuclear device goes off in the Normuz strait, since they lie pretty close in distance and since their coast would be affected.That would be pretty disartrous both the their citizens and to the economy at large.

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